Impact Publications : AirCargo-258
AirCArgo AsiA-PACifiC • JAN-FEB, 2019 • Page 9 ACI World summarises August-November freight results; flags areas of concern that are likely to impact 2019 figures globally AIRPORTS Council International (ACI) World reports air freight volumes showed significant vola- tility during the period August to November 2018, with year-over- year figures ranging from 3.7 per cent in October to -0.3 per cent in November. The gains produced by the industry in the first half of 2018 have been moderating since, with year-to-date growth reaching 3.6 per cent in Novem- ber. Angela Gittens, director gen- eral of ACI World said volatility between August and November shows that the trade war between the world’s two largest econo- mies has tested the indus- try and the final impact on global supply chains is an unknown. “The outlook for the in- dustry’s performance this year remains uncertain. The United States’ federal government experienced a partial shutdown, China’s diplomatic relationships with several major West- ern countries are tense, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the Eu- ropean Union is still being negotiated and geopolitical ten- sions are high in the Middle East, with the Qatar crisis remaining unresolved - all of which could have a significant impact on traf- fic growth in 2019.” August freight figures were supported by domestic trade, which grew at five per cent on a year-over-year basis compared to international’s 1.2 per cent. Total freight gained 2.3 per cent during the month. The divergent growth between Asia-Pacific and North American markets, which had started to show in June of last year, continued during the month, with the two regions growing by 1.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively on a year-over-year basis. Europe barely avoided going into negative territory in August, posting 0.1 per cent growth for the month. September’s freight results showed a substantial moderation, reaching 1.6 per cent growth on a year-over-year basis, in line with the volatility that characterised the year’s freight market. Asia-Pa- cific lost 1.1 per cent during the month, with Europe gaining 0.8 per cent and North America continuing its robust growth at four per cent. Here again, global domestic freight propped up the industry’s figures with + three per cent, compensating for a 0.9 per cent increase in the international segment. The air freight market regained some lost momentum in October, growing by 3.7 per cent on a year- over-year basis. As with August and September, Asia-Pacific (2.6 per cent) and Europe (1.9 per cent) under-performed compared to North America (6.4 per cent) during the month. The global industry’s domestic segment con- tributed the larger portion of the period’s increase, gaining 6.6 per cent. The international segment reached 2.4 per cent, an improve- ment over the four prior months. In November 2018, the global air freight industry posted a decline for the first time since February 2016, losing 0.3 per cent against a year prior. Both market segments performed weakly, with international freight losing 0.6 per cent and the domestic seg- ment gaining 0.3 per cent. North America posted a 0.9 per cent increase in total freight during the period, a significant shift from prior months for the region. Europe and Asia-Pacific declined on a year-over-year basis, post- ing -one per cent and -2 .1 per cent respectively. Despite the volatility and moderation of the last few months, year- to-date figures remain robust for the air freight industry. Total freight is set to grow by at least three per cent by year’s end (currently it sits at 3.6 per cent), with domestic freight hovering around five per cent. International freight is standing at three per cent, with the trend suggesting it could stand around 2.7 per cent by year’s end. Considering the events taking place in 2018, these figures point to the industry’s impressive resilience to shocks.