Impact Publications : AirCargo-257
Page 26 • AIRCARGO ASIA-PACIFIC NOV- DEC, 2018 Air cargo yields on the rise - and some USA-China trade figures WORLDACD reports world-wide air cargo yield moved up to US$1.99 in October 2018, seven per cent higher than in October 2017, and three cents higher than in September 2018. Measured in euros, the world-wide yield in- creased by 10 per cent year-over- year (YoY). These changes occurred against the backdrop of a two per cent volume increase YoY, a load factor decrease of 1.3 percent- age points YoY and a load factor increase of 2.8 percentage-points MoM, i.e. from September to Oc- tober 2018. After the YoY drop in worldwide air cargo volume in September, October showed a small YoY growth of 2.0 per cent world wide. Three regions recorded growth in both outgoing and incoming air cargo: Asia Pacific performed best with growth percentages of 4.2 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively. For Europe, the corresponding percentages were 0.5 and 2.7 per cent and for MESA (Middle East & South Asia) 3.4 and 0.1 per cent. In the other areas, the picture was mixed: Africa and North America grew in incoming but contracted in outgoing traffic, while Central and South America showed the opposite trend. Both In October and in the year-to- date, the highest region-to-region growth was observed from Cen- tral and South America to Asia Pacific (+33 per cent in October), mainly driven by the export of seafood. In terms of yields, expressed in USD, origin Asia Pacific recorded the largest YoY increase (10.4 per cent), mainly caused by a 14.3 per cent yield growth in the market from Asia Pacific to North America. The origins Africa and North America increased yields by 8.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively. Other areas saw a more modest increase. For the year 2018, through the month of October, yield increase YoY stands at 13.4 per cent, accompa- nied by a volume growth YoY of 3.1 per cent. A remarkable yield development was noticed in the October-market from Hong Kong to the USA: the yield (at US$4.47) increased by 19.5 per cent YoY and topped the peak yield of No- vember last year by 35 cents. USA and China ‘war’ US president Trump and pres- ident Xi Jinping of China called a temporary truce to their trade war during the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires and will work toward a new deal on trade issues. The trade war is inflicting economic damage on both countries. Obviously, everyone in air cargo is curious to know whether and how the trade war between the USA and China is affecting traffic streams. WorldACD compared the mar- kets China-USA and USA-China, thus revealing information that may help to perform a reality check on the many stories going around about the effects of the US-China tug-of-war. In the year 2018 through Oc- tober, China’s total outbound air cargo grew YoY by 1.9 per cent and the USA’s by 4.9 per cent (to- tal world-wide growth was 3.1 per cent). China to USA and USA to China were up by three per cent and one per cent respectively. In other words, China to USA grew faster than China outbound world wide, whilst the opposite was true for the USA to China. Focusing on the last two months on record, in September China to USA was up by 2.1 per cent YoY, whilst USA to China was up by 0.7 per cent. But the October-comparison is more telling: China to USA up by 4.5 per cent, and USA to China down by the same percentage! Taking the totals for the two months for both directions together, we noted a YoY growth of 1.9 per cent, well above the world average of 0.9 per cent. As would be expected, the 4.5 per cent YoY growth in air cargo from China to the USA was largely fuelled by a rise in the transport of vulnerable /high-tech goods. This sector grew by 30.5 per cent YoY, much more than the usual seasonal upswing. Most likely a case of US businesses stocking up before tariffs really start to bite.