Impact Publications : AirCargo -255
AirCArgo AsiA-PACifiC • JUNE-JULY, 2018 • Page 23 Economic models relied on to support TPP-11 are obsolete - and misleading - says oSIA TPP sUPPorTErs Allegedly are citing obsolete TPP-12 economic models as evidence to garner support for TPP-11, ignoring its substantial reduction in market scope following the UsA’s with- drawal from the deal and the 22 suspensions introduced by CPTPP. To counter what it calls misin- formation, Open Source Industry Australia Ltd (OSIA), in evidence before the JSCOT inquiry’s public hearing, has renewed its call for the treaty to be referred to the Productivity Commission for in- dependent, current and credible economic modelling. OSIA previously noted in its sub- mission to JSCOT on TPP-11 that the results of the TPP-12 models fell within the margin of error for these sorts of results. Both OSIA and the ACTU then highlighted that point in their testimonies. With the TPP-11 market less than half that of TPP-12, those results provide even less of a guide to the economic benefits, if any, that TPP-11 may bring to Australia, OSIA claims. “At the hearing, the Minerals Council supported the PIIE model to justify the marginal benefits associated with the treaty. The original PIIE report was published in 2016, before the US withdrew, with an update in 2017, before the CPTPP text became public. De- spite TPP’s market scope having been cut in half and 22 suspen- sions introduced, those models are still being cited as justification to enter into the treaty. “I note that the Peterson model was released in October 2017. That was four months before the final text of CPTPP was published,” said OSIA company secretary Jack Burton in his evidence before the Melbourne hearing. “So the Peterson Institute, like us ... were ... flying blind at that stage.’’ PIIE later suggested that the USA may return to the CPTPP, but US officials would also likely want other changes in TPP to validate president Trump’s claim that it would have to be a far better deal for America. Even though TPP was negotiat- ed in secret, largely for the USA’s benefit, it seems even that is not enough: There may be further restrictions introduced, to the detriment of Australia’s economy. Yet it seems the original PIIE study is still considered ‘valid’ for cur- rent and possible future changes to CPTPP, OSIA says. The GRIPS paper was published in January 2017 on the basis that the US was still involved, which is no longer the case. That obso- lete information was used by the Business Council of Australia in its submission to JSCOT. The same obsolete results, including some of the graphics, were then por- trayed as another example justify- ing CPTPP by media. OSIA, in its evidence at the JSCOT hearing, has renewed its call for the Productivity Commis- sion to model independently the effects of TPP-11 on the Australian economy using valid and recent data. “If Australia is going to enter into an agreement with such low expectations, our government should at least rely on accurate, timely models,” said OSIA chair- man Mark Phillips, just after his appearance before the JSCOT inquiry. “Isn’t it about time we did our own homework and let the Pro- ductivity Commission do its job? Australia should not ratify an agreement based on faulty sce- narios.” Smiley whale face wins at Airbus AIRBUS’ new oversized BelugaXL air transporters are based on the A330- 200 freighter and look like a smiling Beluga whale. The new livery was among choices offered to 20,000 Airbus employees. Some 40 per cent voted for the smiley look. The BelugaXL will now undertake ground tests before its first flight later this year. Right: The first BelugaXL rolls out from the paint shop.